Temuan backtest
1.491 event · 239 emiten (2020-2026). Intinya: rally sebelum cum; tahan demi dividen sering rugi. Data per 2026-09-12.
Pola historis, bukan saran. Abnormal return = vs rata-rata pasar. Belum termasuk biaya/spread; in-sample; horizon pendek ~10 hari sekitar ex.
Run-up H-20
+3.8%
61.9% positif
Ex-date
-3.3%
88% turun
Drop vs DPS
0.8x
median
Pulih H+20
-1.9%
38.1% pulih
Menguat menjelang cum
Lonjakan terbesar di H-40→H-20; lima hari terakhir lebih tipis. Lihat screener run-up.
H-40
+5.2%
58.33%
H-20
+3.8%
61.9%
H-10
+2.8%
60.36%
H-5
+1.1%
54.26%
Ex-date: turun, tapi < nilai dividen
Harga turun di 88% event (~0.8x DPS). Pemulihan H+20 median -1.9% (38.1% pulih), sering terus lemah relatif pasar.
Antisipasi > tahan demi dividen
Antisipasi
Beli ~H-20, jual di cum (tanpa ambil dividen)
+3.8%
61.9% menang
Capture
Beli cum, jual ~H+10 ex (dividen net pajak 10%)
+0.4%
dividen final, sering < 0
Yield lebih tinggi → run-up lebih kuat
Tapi drop & gagal-pulih setelah ex juga lebih dalam (lihat trap di bawah).
Yield < 3%
+1.7%
50.8%
Yield 3-6%
+3.1%
61.76%
Yield 6-10%
+7.8%
81.47%
Yield ≥ 10%
+10.2%
81%
Run-up terkuat
Min. 4 event
| PBSA Paramita Bangun Sarana Tbk | +18.7% 100% · 7x |
| GHON Gihon Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk | +18.5% 100% · 5x |
| CAMP Campina Ice Cream Industry, Tbk. | +15.3% 100% · 4x |
| RAJA Rukun Raharja Tbk | +15.0% 100% · 6x |
| TOTL Total Bangun Persada Tbk | +13.6% 100% · 5x |
| HAIS Hasnur Internasional Shipping Tbk | +13.2% 100% · 5x |
| IKBI Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk | +12.8% 100% · 4x |
| GLVA Galva Technologies Tbk | +12.4% 100% · 5x |
Dividend trap
Capture (cum→H+10) paling rugi
| GHON Gihon Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk | -10.6% 1.6x div · 5x |
| BTPS Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk | -9.5% 1.27x div · 7x |
| IKBI Sumi Indo Kabel Tbk | -8.0% 1.26x div · 4x |
| SSMS Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. | -7.2% 1.07x div · 6x |
| UNIC Unggul Indah Cahaya Tbk | -7.0% 1.74x div · 8x |
| AMOR Ashmore Asset Management Indonesia Tbk | -6.6% 2x div · 11x |
| WINS Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk | -6.3% 0.4x div · 4x |
| PBSA Paramita Bangun Sarana Tbk | -6.1% 1.02x div · 7x |